The Real Giants of Africa — Beyond GDP.
Brilliant Citizen: Hello, dear Economist. You have been scarce these days; I mostly see you on national TV and social media.
Economist: Hi, my brilliant citizen. I am there to serve you and others. Don’t you want the wider audience to be as knowledgeable as you?
Brilliant Citizen: (proud and satisfied look) Well well, that’s a good point. How are you doing?
Economist: I am good! I continue to think about the continent’s growth and development.
Brilliant Citizen: Your love for Africa is admirable. Somehow, you have convinced me to remain in this continent.
Economist: Are you sure? Or your JAPA plans have not worked yet? (grinning)
Brilliant Citizen: Truth be told, they have not clicked o. But I am also learning that you can be anywhere and be a global citizen.
Economist: That’s really good to note.
Brilliant Citizen: Ok, let’s talk about Africa, what is in the news?
Economist: There have been some exciting news — Senegal’s peaceful and fair election — leading to the youngest democratically elected President in the continent.
Brilliant Citizen: I hope this means good for the Senegalese economy. On another note, I saw some data about Nigeria expected to drop to fourth largest economies in Africa by the end of this year. This was shocking for me! I thought we were making some progress!
Economist: Calm down, the country is certainly on the right path. This drop in GDP is expected in the short term especially because of the recent devaluation of the naira — you need more naira to get a dollar compared to last year and past years. However, in the long term, if the policies are sustained, we should be back to top three African countries based on GDP.
Brilliant Citizen: That’s fair but I really need Nigeria to be back as Number 1.
Economist: Do we want this for “bragging rights”, or should we be more focused on the quality of the country’s growth?
Brilliant Citizen: Bragging right is essential too as it can help us attract investment. You know how we say “Nigeria is the largest country in Africa with over 200 million people…”
Economist: Yes, I know that line, I like that the line includes the population too. So, we can look beyond the GDP values to GDP per capita. Remember our chat on GDP per capita, some years back? https://esthermoyin.medium.com/nigeria-the-giant-of-africa-the-needs-of-a-giant-8bd0065fb8b2
Let’s have a look at the GDP per capita across these same countries:
Brilliant Citizen: Wow, Nigeria is last in this chart!
Economist: Yes, and there could be other African countries not included here with better GDP per capita.
Brilliant Citizen: Oh dear, Nigeria has a lot of work to do. Leave being the largest economy in Africa!
Economist: I agree, we need to look beyond GDP! Thankfully, the country is on a growth path and taking some hard decisions towards this. The devaluation and other recent policies should help Nigeria grow in the medium and long term.
Brilliant Citizen: I really hope so. It is quite a painful process for many Nigerians.
Economist: Indeed, it is!
Brilliant Citizen: Ok, so what of other African countries? See South Africa, they are number 1 in both charts! But I thought they were having some economic challenges?
Economist: Yes, currently their growth rate numbers are low at 1% because of an energy supply issue and other structural issues. We are hopeful their elections will be peaceful, and they are able to resolve the energy issues. Overall, it is still a strong country with high industrialization and continuous growth potentials.
Brilliant Citizen: Also, I guess they are not as populated as Nigeria?
Economist: Yes, South Africa’s population is slightly above 60 million. Hence, their resources are not spread across as many people in countries like Nigeria, Egypt and Ethiopia, which have over 100 million people.
Brilliant Citizen: I see what you mean. Indeed, higher population can be a huge responsibility.
Economist: Yes, but it can also be an asset if utilised for productive activities.
Brilliant Citizen: It is like a double-edged sword! Anyway, I have to go now. Let me go and make some money. I still plan to settle down this year, so there is a lot of work to do! “Me, myself, I am an economy of my own”!
(Both laugh and bid each other goodbye).
Data Sources & References:
IMF, the Cable, Nairametrics.
Special thanks to Wale Olusi for his contribution to this article.
