ECOWAS — Disintegration Threats
The Brilliant Citizen & the Economist series — African Edition.
Brilliant Citizen: Hello, my Economist! Why do you look so serious this morning?
Economist: Hi, I have quite a lot on my mind these days.
Brilliant Citizen: Wow, I am usually the one with the worries. Let me guess? Nigeria’s exchange rate, inflation, security matters and what else?
Economist: Oh, I am more concerned about Africa’s integration at the moment. Yes, there is a lot going on in Nigeria. We are going through a painful process, but the country will hopefully come out stronger.
Brilliant Citizen: I always admire your optimism for Nigeria. Let me hear about your African worries.
Economist: It’s the recent disunity among African countries specially the ECOWAS region. This month three countries –Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, issued a statement on exiting ECOWAS.
Brilliant Citizen: Oh, yes, I think I heard that in the news. Is it really that serious?
Economist: Well, yes, it is. For African countries to grow, we need to be more integrated. We are all waiting for the full implementation of Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA) agreement and its expected enormous benefits. This could be a reversal in some of the gains the ECOWAS region has made.
Brilliant Citizen: Ok, calm down. Let’s assess the situation objectively. How has ECOWAS performed in the last decade. How does this proposed split impact the countries and region as a whole?
Economist: Based on data from 2022, ECOWAS countries recorded a GDP of over $730 billion. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger accounted for about 9% of this, with Nigeria and Ghana contributing over 70%.
Brilliant Citizen: Interesting, so since the three focus countries contribute a little, the remaining 12 countries should not be too bothered. They can continue to grow their economies.
Economist: It is not as simple as that. Firstly, you need to consider trade among the ECOWAS countries. For example, prior to the sanctions, Nigeria traded quite actively with Niger — $226 million in 2022 (according to International Trade Center Data). But this been disrupted since the various sanctions. Also, you have to consider security matters, the exit of these three countries could increase the security risks in border countries like Nigeria and Benin. We could see increase in entry of terrorists and heightened smuggling.
Brilliant Citizen: Ok, that is worrisome. But what are the benefits to the three countries or are they merely revolting against ECOWAS?
Economist: If you recall, the three countries were sanctioned after their various military coups. This has weakened their socio and economic activities. So, yes there are elements of revolting. However, they could be exploring other agreements with other regions and other non-Western countries like Russia. Among themselves, they are making plans to form a confederation.
Brilliant Citizen: Hmmm, I see. So, what is the way out?
Economist: We expect to see more diplomatic discussions between ECOWAS and the three countries. Hopefully, there is some resolution that limits the implications of the disintegration or reunites the regional body. Also, beyond these three countries, it is important that African leaders truly serve and improve the lives of its citizens to reverse this growing trend of military intervention. Lastly, like never before, we need African countries united to face the various global challenges and of course harness the growing opportunities!
Brilliant Citizen: I trust you to always see opportunities! Anyway, I will see you later, I need to go now. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Economist: Thank you and you too.
Special thanks to Wale Olusi & Abraham Afariogun for their contribution to this article.
Data Sources & References:
Arise News, BBC News, Deloitte Publication — ECOWAS cracks as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger (BMN) exit and ECOWAS
