New Year — Economic Growth Projections
Brilliant Citizen: Happy new year! You are looking good! Trust you had a restful break?
Economist: Thank you, dear Brilliant Citizen. I got some time off work and rested.
Brilliant Citizen: Great! I am glad you could. So, our Economist, what are we expecting this new year?
Economist: I like that you are asking for the economic numbers? Are you sure you want to know?
Brilliant Citizen: Of course, I want to know. I need it to guide my plans for the year.
Economist: That’s a good. Well, this week, the World Bank shared its Global Economic Report stating, “the global economy is set for the weakest half decade performance in 30 years.”
Brilliant Citizen: Haaa, this does not sound good! Did you say this is global or just Nigeria?
Economist: I said global. But you need to calm down and get the details. The headline is quite sensational and does not tell the entire story.
Brilliant Citizen: Ok, please provide clarity. I need to know more.
Economist: Yes, global economic growth is expected to reduce from 2.6% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024. Yet, in the same report, it alludes that the global economy is in a better place this year. The chances of a recession are reduced, despite the many underlying challenges across different regions.
Brilliant Citizen: This is more reassuring. How is your favorite continent — Africa — looking?
Economist: Africa is still rising with its growth projected to increase from 2.9% to 3.8% in 2024 and reach 4.1% by 2025. However, it’s growth is hindered by three major economies — South Africa, Angola and Nigeria.
Brilliant Citizen: You just had to put Nigeria there. So, we are the ones hindering the continent’s growth?
Economist: Well, it is what the data tells us! Let’s look at these countries’ growth trends.
Brilliant Citizen: Nigeria, that’s the green, does not look so bad. It seems we are on a steady recovery path and Nigeria has the highest growth compared to the Angola and South Africa.
Economist: Well, you are correct that Nigeria is projected to be the fastest growing amongst the three countries, but remember the goal is not to be the fastest or biggest economy in Africa. The goal is to grow at a rate that leads to economic development and prosperity.
Brilliant Citizen: Now I agree with you. We are not yet seeing economic prosperity in Nigeria o. We still have a long way to go… So, what growth rate should Nigeria and these African countries be growing at?
Economist: That’s a good question. If you look at only the numbers, you need developing countries growing at a higher single digit — from the 7%.
Brilliant Citizen: Is this possible in Africa? Or are we hoping for too much?
Economist: It is attainable. We have Rwanda which grew at 7% in 2023 and projected to reach 7.8% in 2025. In fact, it grew at 10.9% in 2021. Also, Senegal and Congo are expected to grow at 8.8% and 6.5% in 2024.
Brilliant Citizen: Wow, so it is possible! We really need the bigger African economies growing faster.
Economist: Yes, and beyond the growth numbers, we need the growth to be sustainable, closely linked to development; creating jobs, and increasing prosperity in the African citizens.
Brilliant Citizen: Prosperity is key, poverty is wicked and limiting! Prosperity all the way in 2024!
Economist: This year, we will discuss more on how African countries can prosper. I hope you are going to stay with me?
Brilliant Citizen: Well, I am still planning to leave the country, but I just may still be in the continent. So, we will discuss *grinning*.
Special thanks to Wale Olusi & Abraham Afariogun for their contribution to this article.
References and Readings:
World Bank Report
Global Economic Prospects
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
All data gotten from the WB report.
Nairametrics: Weaknesses in Nigeria and South Africa’s economy to limit Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth in 2024 — World Bank https://nairametrics.com/2024/01/10/weaknesses-in-nigeria-and-south-africas-economy-to-limit-sub-saharan-africas-growth-in-2024-world-bank/
